League Two · Matchweek 20
Newport County
NEW
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport32%
Draw26%
Oldham42%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.57
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession47%
25%Territory37%
25%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.12
8.2%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.