League Two · Matchweek 20
Newport County
NEW
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport45%
Draw24%
Oldham31%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.53
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession46%
31%Territory41%
43%From set plays37%
0.11Chance quality0.12
9.7%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.