League Two · Matchweek 20
Grimsby Town
GRI
Barnet
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby45%
Draw24%
Barnet30%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.47
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession52%
36%Territory40%
26%From set plays28%
0.15Chance quality0.12
8.6%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grimsby, 3 for Barnet. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.