League Two · Matchweek 20
Gillingham
GIL
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham44%
Draw24%
Cheltenham32%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.53
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession51%
27%Territory29%
43%From set plays46%
0.14Chance quality0.20
7.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.