League Two · Matchweek 20
Gillingham
GIL
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham49%
Draw24%
Cheltenham26%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.30
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cheltenham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession39%
28%Territory26%
17%From set plays34%
0.11Chance quality0.16
7.7%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.