League Two · Matchweek 20
Colchester United
COL
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Colchester45%
Draw27%
Fleetwood28%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.21
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession51%
34%Territory36%
30%From set plays36%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 4 for Fleetwood.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.