League Two · Matchweek 20
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Chesterfield
CHS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington31%
Draw24%
Chesterfield45%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.81
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chesterfield will have the ball; Accrington will not mind.
40%Possession57%
31%Territory39%
30%From set plays18%
0.16Chance quality0.13
8.5%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Accrington, 3 for Chesterfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.