League Two · Matchweek 19
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shrewsbury42%
Draw31%
Port Vale27%
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.94
Over 2.5
37%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession49%
31%Territory35%
35%From set plays34%
0.08Chance quality0.11
6.1%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Shrewsbury, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.