League Two · Matchweek 19
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Gillingham
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oldham49%
Draw24%
Gillingham27%
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.40
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
41%Territory27%
43%From set plays43%
0.10Chance quality0.14
9.0%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oldham, 4 for Gillingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gillingham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.