League Two · Matchweek 19
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood52%
Draw24%
Swindon24%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.20
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession48%
31%Territory35%
45%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fleetwood, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.