League Two · Matchweek 19
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood55%
Draw23%
Swindon22%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.20
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fleetwood get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession48%
31%Territory35%
49%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.12
5.6%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fleetwood, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.