League Two · Matchweek 19
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood42%
Draw26%
Swindon32%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.37
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fleetwood will have the ball; Swindon will not mind.
51%Possession39%
36%Territory36%
36%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.13
6.8%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fleetwood, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.