League Two · Matchweek 19
Exeter City
EXE
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter47%
Draw28%
Rochdale25%
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.99
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession50%
29%Territory29%
44%From set plays31%
0.10Chance quality0.09
7.7%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.