League Two · Matchweek 19
Exeter City
EXE
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter55%
Draw26%
Rochdale20%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.92
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Rochdale will have the ball; Exeter will not mind.
44%Possession56%
36%Territory26%
22%From set plays37%
0.08Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Exeter, 4 for Rochdale.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.