League Two · Matchweek 19
Crawley Town
CRA
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crawley45%
Draw25%
Newport30%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.35
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crawley will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
64%Possession40%
39%Territory25%
25%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.14
4.5%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Crawley, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.