League Two · Matchweek 19
Chesterfield
CHS
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chesterfield37%
Draw25%
Grimsby38%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.60
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
39%Territory36%
18%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.15
7.1%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chesterfield, 4 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.