League Two · Matchweek 19
Barnet
BAR
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet57%
Draw24%
Northampton19%
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barnet will have the ball; Northampton will not mind.
58%Possession49%
42%Territory41%
58%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Barnet, 3 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.