League Two · Matchweek 19
Barnet
BAR
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet67%
Draw20%
Northampton13%
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 2–011.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Northampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession47%
40%Territory27%
28%From set plays49%
0.12Chance quality0.07
5.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barnet, 4 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.