League Two · Matchweek 18
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oldham43%
Draw26%
Bristol Rovers31%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.34
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
37%Territory41%
35%From set plays38%
0.12Chance quality0.07
8.1%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oldham, 4 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.