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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 18

Oldham Athletic

OLD

Bristol Rovers

BRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Oldham50%
Draw25%
Bristol Rovers25%

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.23

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession52%
41%Territory37%
43%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.07
9.0%Directness8.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oldham, 3 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.