League Two · Matchweek 18
Northampton Town
NOR
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton29%
Draw28%
Fleetwood42%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.39
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fleetwood get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession53%
41%Territory31%
27%From set plays49%
0.08Chance quality0.13
6.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Northampton, 3 for Fleetwood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.