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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 18

Northampton Town

NOR

Fleetwood Town

FLE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Northampton29%
Draw30%
Fleetwood42%

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.30

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–112.7%
  • 0–010.8%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession51%
27%Territory36%
49%From set plays36%
0.07Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 4 for Fleetwood.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.