League Two · Matchweek 18
Grimsby Town
GRI
Colchester United
COL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby54%
Draw24%
Colchester22%
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.15
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession52%
36%Territory34%
26%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.08
8.6%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grimsby, 4 for Colchester.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.