League Two · Matchweek 18
Gillingham
GIL
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham42%
Draw26%
Swindon32%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.39
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession39%
28%Territory36%
17%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.13
7.7%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.