League Two · Matchweek 18
Gillingham
GIL
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham41%
Draw26%
Swindon33%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.45
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession48%
27%Territory35%
43%From set plays31%
0.14Chance quality0.12
7.7%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.