League Two · Matchweek 18
Crawley Town
CRA
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crawley39%
Draw27%
Port Vale34%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.33
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession53%
41%Territory33%
42%From set plays43%
0.09Chance quality0.14
6.6%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crawley, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.