League Two · Matchweek 18
Chesterfield
CHS
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chesterfield58%
Draw24%
Exeter19%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.00
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chesterfield will have the ball; Exeter will not mind.
57%Possession46%
39%Territory29%
18%From set plays44%
0.13Chance quality0.10
7.1%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chesterfield, 3 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.