League Two · Matchweek 18
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cheltenham52%
Draw24%
Rochdale23%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.18
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Rochdale will have the ball; Cheltenham will not mind.
39%Possession50%
26%Territory29%
34%From set plays31%
0.16Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cheltenham, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.