League Two · Matchweek 18
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cheltenham61%
Draw20%
Rochdale18%
Expected goals
2.27 – 1.23
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession56%
29%Territory26%
46%From set plays38%
0.20Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cheltenham, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cheltenham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.