League Two · Matchweek 18
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington49%
Draw28%
Crewe23%
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.93
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Accrington get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession44%
39%Territory29%
34%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.13
7.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Accrington, 4 for Crewe.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.