League Two · Matchweek 17
Walsall
WAL
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Walsall52%
Draw25%
Northampton23%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.11
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
30%Territory41%
23%From set plays27%
0.16Chance quality0.08
8.0%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Walsall, 3 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.