League Two · Matchweek 17
Swindon Town
SWI
Chesterfield
CHS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon37%
Draw25%
Chesterfield38%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.63
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chesterfield will have the ball; Swindon will not mind.
39%Possession57%
36%Territory39%
26%From set plays18%
0.13Chance quality0.13
8.6%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Chesterfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.