League Two · Matchweek 17
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shrewsbury42%
Draw28%
Cheltenham30%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.17
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession39%
31%Territory26%
35%From set plays34%
0.08Chance quality0.16
6.1%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Shrewsbury, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.