League Two · Matchweek 17
Rochdale
ROC
Barnet
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rochdale19%
Draw23%
Barnet59%
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.98
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession52%
29%Territory40%
31%From set plays28%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.9%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 3 for Barnet. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.