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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 17

Rochdale

ROC

Barnet

BAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rochdale16%
Draw19%
Barnet64%

Expected goals

1.19 – 2.39

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–29.5%
  • 0–28.1%
  • 1–18.0%
  • 1–37.5%
  • 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barnet get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession58%
26%Territory42%
38%From set plays58%
0.08Chance quality0.12
3.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 4 for Barnet.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.