Club Football Intelligence

League Two · Matchweek 17

Sat, 28 Nov, 15:00 UTC

Rochdale

ROC

15:00 UTC

Barnet

BAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rochdale16%

Draw19%

Barnet65%

Expected goals

1.18 – 2.40

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

1–29.5%
0–28.2%
1–18.0%
1–37.6%
0–17.3%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barnet get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession58%

26%Territory42%

38%From set plays56%

0.08Chance quality0.13

3.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 4 for Barnet.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Rochdale

Edward FrancisMF0G 1A 0.56/90
Charlie TaskerDF1G 0A 0.40/90
Aden FlintDF1G 0A 0.33/90

Barnet

Kabongo TshimangaFW2G 0A 0.69/90
Charlie LakinFW0G 1A 0.39/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.