League Two · Matchweek 17
Port Vale
POR
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale40%
Draw28%
Newport32%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.22
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Port Vale will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
49%Possession40%
35%Territory25%
34%From set plays25%
0.11Chance quality0.14
6.8%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.