League Two · Matchweek 17
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood40%
Draw28%
Accrington32%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.23
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession46%
31%Territory39%
45%From set plays34%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fleetwood, 4 for Accrington. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.