League Two · Matchweek 17
Exeter City
EXE
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter42%
Draw29%
Crawley29%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.07
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crawley get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession51%
36%Territory41%
22%From set plays42%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness6.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Exeter, 3 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.