League Two · Matchweek 17
Exeter City
EXE
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter39%
Draw28%
Crawley33%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.28
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crawley will have the ball; Exeter will not mind.
46%Possession64%
29%Territory39%
44%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.10
7.7%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 4 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.