League Two · Matchweek 17
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe26%
Draw25%
Grimsby49%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.73
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession56%
32%Territory36%
33%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.15
6.5%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 4 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.