League Two · Matchweek 17
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe21%
Draw23%
Grimsby55%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.90
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession41%
29%Territory39%
15%From set plays16%
0.14Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness10.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Crewe, 3 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.