League Two · Matchweek 17
Colchester United
COL
York City
YOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Colchester54%
Draw25%
York City21%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.03
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession55%
35%Territory26%
27%From set plays14%
0.15Chance quality0.07
6.9%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 4 for York City.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Colchester
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.