League Two · Matchweek 16
York City
YOR
Walsall
WAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
York City29%
Draw24%
Walsall47%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.82
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession54%
26%Territory30%
17%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.16
5.8%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for York City, 3 for Walsall. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.