League Two · Matchweek 16
Tranmere Rovers
TRA
Colchester United
COL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Tranmere33%
Draw26%
Colchester41%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.54
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession52%
36%Territory34%
19%From set plays30%
0.12Chance quality0.08
9.4%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tranmere, 4 for Colchester. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.