League Two · Matchweek 16
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oldham47%
Draw28%
Exeter26%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.06
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Oldham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession44%
41%Territory36%
43%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.08
9.0%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oldham, 4 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.