League Two · Matchweek 16
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Oldham54%
Draw25%
Exeter21%
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
37%Territory29%
35%From set plays44%
0.12Chance quality0.10
8.1%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Oldham, 3 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.