League Two · Matchweek 16
Northampton Town
NOR
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton55%
Draw25%
Rochdale20%
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.95
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession56%
41%Territory26%
27%From set plays38%
0.08Chance quality0.08
6.4%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Northampton, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.