League Two · Matchweek 16
Northampton Town
NOR
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton41%
Draw30%
Rochdale28%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.01
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Northampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession50%
27%Territory29%
49%From set plays31%
0.07Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 4 for Rochdale.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Northampton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.