League Two · Matchweek 16
Newport County
NEW
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport36%
Draw26%
Swindon38%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.55
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession39%
25%Territory36%
25%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.13
8.2%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.