League Two · Matchweek 16
Newport County
NEW
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport46%
Draw25%
Swindon29%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.34
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Swindon will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
39%Possession48%
31%Territory35%
43%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.12
9.7%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.