League Two · Matchweek 16
Grimsby Town
GRI
Rotherham United
ROT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby78%
Draw14%
Rotherham8%
Expected goals
2.88 – 0.92
Over 2.5
72%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.7%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession41%
39%Territory28%
17%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.14
10.6%Directness6.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grimsby, 3 for Rotherham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Rotherham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.