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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 16

Gillingham

GIL

Crewe Alexandra

CRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gillingham40%
Draw27%
Crewe33%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.31

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Gillingham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

47%Possession44%
27%Territory29%
43%From set plays15%
0.14Chance quality0.14
7.7%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 4 for Crewe.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.