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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 16

Crawley Town

CRA

Fleetwood Town

FLE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Crawley31%
Draw26%
Fleetwood43%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.64

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession53%
41%Territory31%
41%From set plays45%
0.10Chance quality0.12
6.6%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crawley, 3 for Fleetwood. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.