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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 16

Cheltenham Town

CHE

Bristol Rovers

BRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cheltenham33%
Draw25%
Bristol Rovers42%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.67

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 2–17.7%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

39%Possession46%
26%Territory41%
34%From set plays38%
0.16Chance quality0.07
5.6%Directness9.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cheltenham, 4 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.