League Two · Matchweek 16
Barnet
BAR
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet63%
Draw21%
Port Vale16%
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.98
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.4%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
40%Territory35%
28%From set plays34%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barnet, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.