League Two · Matchweek 16
Barnet
BAR
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet58%
Draw23%
Port Vale19%
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.11
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Barnet get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession53%
42%Territory33%
58%From set plays43%
0.12Chance quality0.14
6.7%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Barnet, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.