Club Football Intelligence

League Two · Matchweek 15

Sat, 14 Nov, 15:00 UTC

Swindon Town

SWI

15:00 UTC

Grimsby Town

GRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Swindon31%

Draw25%

Grimsby44%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.75

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%
1–29.0%
0–17.7%
2–17.3%
2–26.7%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Grimsby will have the ball; Swindon will not mind.

39%Possession56%

36%Territory36%

26%From set plays26%

0.13Chance quality0.15

8.6%Directness8.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 4 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Swindon

Aaron DrinanFW4G 0A 2.01/90
Anthony MundaMF0G 1A 0.54/90
Jack ThomsonMF0G 1A 0.50/90

Grimsby

Kieran GreenMF2G 2A 1.04/90
Andy CookFW2G 1A 0.90/90
Géza Dávid TuriMF1G 1A 0.50/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.