League Two · Matchweek 15
Swindon Town
SWI
Grimsby Town
GRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon21%
Draw22%
Grimsby57%
Expected goals
1.26 – 2.09
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–36.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession41%
35%Territory39%
31%From set plays17%
0.12Chance quality0.13
7.5%Directness10.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.