League Two · Matchweek 15
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shrewsbury32%
Draw30%
Oldham38%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.26
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession47%
31%Territory37%
35%From set plays35%
0.08Chance quality0.12
6.1%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Shrewsbury, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.