League Two · Matchweek 15
Salford City
SAL
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Salford53%
Draw27%
Northampton21%
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.92
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession49%
32%Territory41%
17%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.08
4.5%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salford, 3 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Salford
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.