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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 15

Rochdale

ROC

York City

YOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rochdale34%
Draw26%
York City40%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.55

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Rochdale get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession55%
26%Territory26%
38%From set plays14%
0.08Chance quality0.07
3.7%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 4 for York City.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.