League Two · Matchweek 15
Port Vale
POR
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale31%
Draw29%
Accrington39%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.30
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession46%
33%Territory39%
43%From set plays34%
0.14Chance quality0.08
6.3%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 4 for Accrington. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.