League Two · Matchweek 15
Exeter City
EXE
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter40%
Draw27%
Cheltenham33%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.33
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession39%
29%Territory26%
44%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.16
7.7%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.