League Two · Matchweek 15
Exeter City
EXE
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter40%
Draw28%
Cheltenham32%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.20
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cheltenham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession51%
36%Territory29%
22%From set plays46%
0.08Chance quality0.20
5.2%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Exeter, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cheltenham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.