League Two · Matchweek 15
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe40%
Draw27%
Newport33%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.29
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Newport get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession39%
29%Territory31%
15%From set plays43%
0.14Chance quality0.11
6.2%Directness9.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Crewe, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.