League Two · Matchweek 15
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe45%
Draw26%
Newport29%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.25
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crewe will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
49%Possession40%
32%Territory25%
33%From set plays25%
0.07Chance quality0.14
6.5%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.