Club Football Intelligence

League Two · Matchweek 15

Sat, 14 Nov, 15:00 UTC

Colchester United

COL

15:00 UTC

Gillingham

GIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Colchester45%

Draw27%

Gillingham28%

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.21

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%
1–010.2%
2–19.2%
0–17.7%
2–07.3%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession46%

34%Territory28%

30%From set plays17%

0.08Chance quality0.11

5.8%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 4 for Gillingham.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Colchester

Kylian KouassiFW1G 0A 0.53/90
Oscar ThornFW0G 1A 0.34/90
Moses SesayDF0G 1A 0.33/90

Gillingham

Ronan HaleFW2G 1A 0.83/90
Eli KingMF0G 1A 0.56/90
James BrophyMF2G 0A 0.50/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.