League Two · Matchweek 14
Port Vale
POR
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale47%
Draw28%
Rochdale25%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.01
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession50%
35%Territory29%
34%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.09
6.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.