League Two · Matchweek 14
Newport County
NEW
Chesterfield
CHS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport30%
Draw25%
Chesterfield45%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.70
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chesterfield will have the ball; Newport will not mind.
40%Possession57%
25%Territory39%
25%From set plays18%
0.14Chance quality0.13
8.2%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Chesterfield. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.