League Two · Matchweek 14
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood38%
Draw27%
Bristol Rovers35%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.37
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
36%Territory41%
36%From set plays38%
0.09Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fleetwood, 4 for Bristol Rovers.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.